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Black Friday: questions & answers

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Dorsai6
Присоединился в Apr 2013

1033 Сообщения
28 November 2019
@dar2112v

There is no way of knowing the odds in the past or now.

There are two ways. One would be to collect enough data to do a statistical analysis. The simpler way would be for Totem to publish the algorithm they use. I think Totem should do the latter.

I'm a programmer and a system engineer. I've designed a number of stochastic simulations. Not gambling games, but the principals are exactly the same. I would guess that Totem's algorithm is pretty simple, just a fixed number of outcomes with a constant probability for each.
TheEmu
Присоединился в Jul 2012

3309 Сообщения
28 November 2019 (edited)
There is no way of knowing the odds in the past or now.

There are two ways. One would be to collect enough data to do a statistical analysis. The simpler way would be for Totem to publish the algorithm they use. I think Totem should do the latter.

I also would appreciate it if Totem published the odds of winning for all of the games. We can, however, go some way towards estimating the odds by analysing the results. I bought 100 scratch cards (stopping when I qualified for the SEC and Joker cards) and according to my account history had the following results

    48 10 credit wins
    4 50 credit wins
    1 100 credit wins

There were also 43 1 credit bonuses some of which would have been won at the same time as a main win and others all by themselves. I did not win any free cards as I already owned them all - I believe that any that I would have won were replaced by a 10 credit win (as was the case with the previous scratch card game).

While based only on a sample of 100 scratch cards that suggests to me that the probability of winning something (to the extent of at least nominally getting your money back) on any single scratch card is roughly 50% (plus or minus about 10%) and that the secondary Bonuses have a similar probability of being won,
Vortim
Присоединился в Apr 2019

220 Сообщения
28 November 2019
There is no way of knowing the odds in the past or now.
There are two ways. One would be to collect enough data to do a statistical analysis. The simpler way would be for Totem to publish the algorithm they use. I think Totem should do the latter.
I also would appreciate it if Totem published the odds of winning for all of the games. We can, however, go some way towards estimating the odds by analysing the results. I bought 100 scratch cards (stopping when I qualified for the SEC and Joker cards) and according to my account history had the following results

48 10 credit wins
4 50 credit wins
1 100 credit wins
There were also 43 1 credit bonuses some of which would have been won at the same time as a main win and others all by themselves. I did not win any free cards as I already owned them all - I believe that any that I would have won were replaced by a 10 credit win (as was the case with the previous scratch card game).

While based only on a sample of 100 scratch cards that suggests to me that the probability of winning something (to the extent of at least nominally getting your money back) on any single scratch card is roughly 50% (plus or minus about 10%) and that the secondary Bonuses have a similar probability of being won,

Emu, just curious, you said according to your account history... where can you see this... I am just curious to go back and look at mine to see what I won and of what for this event. Or is this something you just kept track of yourself? Or is it somewhere on our profiles you can see.... just wondering...
TheEmu
Присоединился в Jul 2012

3309 Сообщения
28 November 2019 (edited)
@Vortim - Your account history is available via a tab on the page that opens when you click on the Edit Profile icon in the app's title bar. Amonst other things it shows what you have won via the games.
Vortim
Присоединился в Apr 2019

220 Сообщения
28 November 2019
Your account history is available via a tab on the page that opens when you click on the Edit Profile icon in the app's title bar. Amonst other things it shows what you have won via the games.

Got it, thanks....
Krell
Присоединился в Jan 2008

76 Сообщения
28 November 2019
Even though I now have all the cards there is (minus some withdrawn old cards), including all the SEC cards, I decided to try my luck with 3 scratch cards for 30 credits, for the heck of it. I won 50 credits for every one of those 3 scratch cards. What are the odds, I'd like to know!? And I really mean I scratched 50 credit wins three times in a row with 3 S-symbols (see pic above) - so I have now 120 credits more than I had a few minutes ago.

Not counting the 1320 credits for €99 promo I took advantage of, I have played enough these Black Friday/Week -promos to have obtained 15 new cards, 2 x Special Event Cards and 1 x Joker card and I didn't lose any credits - instead I'm somewhere around 150-200 credits on the plus side with those winnings since I started playing.

Despite some bad experiences with some users, I think the odds have been much more favourable in general this time than in some earlier promos(?)

Most of the users in this thread reporting a profit are premium members. Is that significant in determining one's chances of winning? Is it a two-tier system? Make of it what you will.

Anyway, this experience has completely destroyed my faith in Totem, and replaced it with disgust. I was going to do a €99 topup this week, but having just been MUGGED, I will not give them another penny. I thought about contacting CS to exchange those cards I'm not remotely interested in for ones on my wishlist, but I've been waiting for over a month for a reply to my email enquiry into purchasing another of their products.

If I'd wanted cards I didn't want, I would have bought the progressive packs - at least they include a discount, instead of the obscene markup which was applied by the scratchcard system.
TheEmu
Присоединился в Jul 2012

3309 Сообщения
28 November 2019 (edited)
@Krell

Most of the users in this thread reporting a profit are premium members. Is that significant in determining one's chances of winning? Is it a two-tier system? Make of it what you will.

That will be because having full collections (or full all but for last 45 days if the normal exclusion of recent cards applies to these games) any ordinary card that we would have won is replaced by 10 credits (so we get a smaller reward than we would have done if we had won the card). Therefore we get more wins in the form of credits than those that still have cards that can be bought and hence have better chance of ending up "in profit" as far as credits are concerned even though the total value in credits of our wins would have been higher if we had won cards rather than credits.
Dorsai6
Присоединился в Apr 2013

1033 Сообщения
28 November 2019
@TheEmu

even though the total value in credits of our wins would have been higher if we had won cards rather than credits

There are many ways to calculate value. List price equals value if you are willing to pay that amount. In my case the value of the cards I don't already own is near zero because I don't want them. I wish Totem would allow me to opt for credits instead of cards in these games. That would increase the value for me.
TheEmu
Присоединился в Jul 2012

3309 Сообщения
28 November 2019 (edited)
@Dorsai6 - I had intended to make it clear that I was referring to the "nominal value" of the card but my subsequent editing obscured this - but the phrase "the total value in credits" should have been enough to make my point clear. For those of us with full collections and who continue to buy all cards then my statement is absolutely correct - the 10 credits we get is less than the 11 (or 13) credits that we would have had to pay, and indeed actually have previously paid, for the card that was replaced by the 10 credit prize.

Also please remember that my post was in reply to one that initmated that we premium members were receiving special advantageous treatment in the games - whereas if you analyse it properly we are not. Indeed if you are a triple diamond member (as most premuium member ought to be) but are "picky" about what cards you buy then there is an even greater bias against you in these games because you any card you win is likely to be one you do not like whereas if you as a single diamond member or below then there is a higher probability that any card you win will be one that you like.
JonnBGood
Присоединился в Jul 2018

248 Сообщения
28 November 2019
To all the US'rs Out there HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
Omgman
Присоединился в Oct 2014

18 Сообщения
28 November 2019
I did approx. 1000 spins on x5 (spent about 3,2K credits on the slot machine and only bought -50% and -70% off cards)

I got a single 250 credits reward and 26 times the 25 credits reward.
I also got approximately 550 cards for about 6,5 credits each.
  • > 150 lottery tickets in total and I'm positive that I won't win anything.
JonnBGood
Присоединился в Jul 2018

248 Сообщения
28 November 2019
Out of Curiosity how many Lotto Tickets you folks have?I'm at 448 now think that is good odds?
Ironman79
Присоединился в Dec 2010

439 Сообщения
28 November 2019
Man you guys really want that free year of cards or SECs

Funny thing is i feel like the only one that really needs the year is @rebailne for all the work he does.

These days i don't even download a card until i put a custom skin on it.
njarnb
Присоединился в Nov 2008

76 Сообщения
29 November 2019
How much credit per lottery ticket ?
UKstockinglvr
Присоединился в Apr 2019

21 Сообщения
29 November 2019
Does the progress bar move based on CR spent or each time an event is participated in?

Say if I were to invest in progressive packs rather than spin the wheels.
njarnb
Присоединился в Nov 2008

76 Сообщения
29 November 2019
How much credit per lottery ticket ?

More like how much credits to fill up Black Friday's reward bar ?
Yuufa
Присоединился в Jan 2014

89 Сообщения
29 November 2019
IM only on 32, got no chance. seeing peope with 400 and 1000, you know this gambling works lol
darn5
Присоединился в Apr 2009

35 Сообщения
29 November 2019
I'm missing credits from the scratch game: some wins show up in my history but the credits vanish into nirvana...

Anyone else had this problem?
Dfner
Присоединился в Feb 2018

643 Сообщения
29 November 2019
...but the credits vanish into nirvana...Anyone else had this problem?

Yes, whenever I didn't stop playing when I should have :)

Seriously though, contact customer support if you genuinely think that there has been some error. But I recommend that you first keep very sharp eye on your playing and number of credits. You say that "some of your wins" show up in your account history. That's very vague. For me, every single win that I had showed up there, and it should be same for you. Maybe you missed something (some of your plays or some of the reimbursements in your account)?
tomcatuser
Присоединился в Feb 2009

1 Сообщения
2 December 2019
I'm showing 'Free Free Free' in Slot Machine, but unable to download or buy. Ideas?

darn5
Присоединился в Apr 2009

35 Сообщения
2 December 2019
...but the credits vanish into nirvana...Anyone else had this problem?
Yes, whenever I didn't stop playing when I should have :)

Seriously though, contact customer support if you genuinely think that there has been some error. But I recommend that you first keep very sharp eye on your playing and number of credits. You say that "some of your wins" show up in your account history. That's very vague. For me, every single win that I had showed up there, and it should be same for you. Maybe you missed something (some of your plays or some of the reimbursements in your account)?
Hi,

i did open a ticket, the reply so far was i need 3 S symbols....
I did notice it three times happening, the most obvious was when i bought scratch tickets to get down to 1k credits. My history shows three times 50 credit wins and some lower wins, but i was at 1120 afterwards, so there has something gone wrong. Maybe Manue can help me eventually

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