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Scratch Game Odds Forum / Wszystko o iStripper
TokyoHome
Dołączył: Aug 2020 2 post(y/ów)
August 23, 2020
I did a few searches but could not find anything.
Are the scratch game odds posted anywhere in the app?
I wouldn't mind buying a few to try and get an event card I missed, but if it is .1% or something stupid I won't bother.
Thanks
Are the scratch game odds posted anywhere in the app?
I wouldn't mind buying a few to try and get an event card I missed, but if it is .1% or something stupid I won't bother.
Thanks
August 23, 2020
Are the scratch game odds posted anywhere in the app?
I wouldn't mind buying a few to try and get an event card I missed, but if it is .1% or something stupid I won't bother.
Thanks
@TokyoHome
The scratch game odds are not posted anywhere in the forum. The odds of you getting a "Special Event Card" are usually very low. But you can build up your collection with other random cards you can win.
TokyoHome
Dołączył: Aug 2020 2 post(y/ów)
August 23, 2020
Thanks.
Alkasyn
Dołączył: Apr 2008 727 post(y/ów)
August 23, 2020
I did a few searches but could not find anything.
Are the scratch game odds posted anywhere in the app?
I wouldn't mind buying a few to try and get an event card I missed, but if it is .1% or something stupid I won't bother.
Thanks
To add to what JayZ said - the odds seem to be very random, with some people experiencing lower than 1% (i.e hundreds of credits spent/*****), indeed, especially for people with small to medium collections.
August 23, 2020
To add to what JayZ said - the odds seem to be very random, with some people experiencing lower than 1% (i.e hundreds of credits spent/*****), indeed, especially for people with small to medium collections.
@Alkasyn
I'm also going to link your post that is also relevant here.........
https://www.istripper.com/forum/thread/45512/1?post=676840
Nie masz uprawnień do przeglądania tego tematu
Alkasyn
Dołączył: Apr 2008 727 post(y/ów)
August 23, 2020
Yea, I can see how it can be relevant to the OP :)
As long as the user makes a informed decision and doesn't play the game 'to win' like many people seem to do, but for fun (no expectation - no disappointment) I can see some of the gambling appeal. I usually allow myself a spin or two, but I scratch off these credits as *****, not expecting any return.
As long as the user makes a informed decision and doesn't play the game 'to win' like many people seem to do, but for fun (no expectation - no disappointment) I can see some of the gambling appeal. I usually allow myself a spin or two, but I scratch off these credits as *****, not expecting any return.
nm76
Dołączył: Feb 2008 8 post(y/ów)
August 24, 2020
As someone with a complete collection who only plays the scratch games to try to get the SEC cards, I've found that in the past, I would generally break even with credits, thanks to the way they handled the wins for people that had no normal cards to get.
After purchasing and tracking the results of over 100 cards in this current event (something I've done for the last several scratch-off game events), I can say that the odds for credit wins are significantly lower this time. I'm consistently losing over half of the credits that I spend.
It would seem that they are done letting complete-collection-holders get the SECs basically for free. So instead of just wasting a ton of my time, I now I would have to spend both my time AND my money trying to win the new SEC. I'll spend one or the other, but not both. Sorry.
You want my money? Just let me buy the damn SEC.
After purchasing and tracking the results of over 100 cards in this current event (something I've done for the last several scratch-off game events), I can say that the odds for credit wins are significantly lower this time. I'm consistently losing over half of the credits that I spend.
It would seem that they are done letting complete-collection-holders get the SECs basically for free. So instead of just wasting a ton of my time, I now I would have to spend both my time AND my money trying to win the new SEC. I'll spend one or the other, but not both. Sorry.
You want my money? Just let me buy the damn SEC.
TheEmu
Dołączył: Jul 2012 3309 post(y/ów)
August 24, 2020 (edited)
@nm76
That has been my experience in the past. A few times I was up a few credits, a few times down a few. Once I was up by a lot of credits and once I was down by something approaching 200 credits. Overall I think, but am not sure, that I may be slightly up but in any case not far from breaking even - this over and above having won the SECs.
I did not come to this conclusion. In the end I got this SEC after buying 120 scratch cards, and had 10 credits more than I started with. For me there does not seem to have been much of a change. I know others have lost out significantly, but you would expect that even if the odds were perfectly balanced. I was buying in batches of 10 and though on a little more than half the time I won nothing on 5 or more cards out of each batch the occasional win of 50 or 100 credits pretty well balanced that out in the longer term.
Because of the relatively large prizes of 50 and 100 credits compared to the 1 credit cost of a scratch card, with corresponding low odds of winning them, you need to try far more than 100 cards before you can make a reasonable estimate of the long term odds for these games.
As someone with a complete collection who only plays the scratch games to try to get the SEC cards, I've found that in the past, I would generally break even with credits, thanks to the way they handled the wins for people that had no normal cards to get.
That has been my experience in the past. A few times I was up a few credits, a few times down a few. Once I was up by a lot of credits and once I was down by something approaching 200 credits. Overall I think, but am not sure, that I may be slightly up but in any case not far from breaking even - this over and above having won the SECs.
After purchasing and tracking the results of over 100 cards in this current event (something I've done for the last several scratch-off game events), I can say that the odds for credit wins are significantly lower this time. I'm consistently losing over half of the credits that I spend.
I did not come to this conclusion. In the end I got this SEC after buying 120 scratch cards, and had 10 credits more than I started with. For me there does not seem to have been much of a change. I know others have lost out significantly, but you would expect that even if the odds were perfectly balanced. I was buying in batches of 10 and though on a little more than half the time I won nothing on 5 or more cards out of each batch the occasional win of 50 or 100 credits pretty well balanced that out in the longer term.
Because of the relatively large prizes of 50 and 100 credits compared to the 1 credit cost of a scratch card, with corresponding low odds of winning them, you need to try far more than 100 cards before you can make a reasonable estimate of the long term odds for these games.
trost1977
Dołączył: Jul 2016 60 post(y/ów)
August 25, 2020
if it helps i won the sec in about 12 scratch cards so i think the odds depend on how many cards you buy
wtprivate
Dołączył: Jul 2017 204 post(y/ów)
August 25, 2020
Short answer: The odds are ALWAYS better for Totem than for you. House always wins.
My stats on this one:
150 cards (1500 credits) gambled, 1300 credits + 1 SEC won.
That SEC cost me 200 credits, or roughly $16.65 USD, as I usually only buy credits when they are on sale with the +20% bonus.
That's more than 10x what a normal card costs.
Whatever the unpublished odds are on this one - they are NOT in your favour. I really, REALLY wish there was a way for PREMIUM, TRIPLE DIAMOND members to just get the cards without this gambling rubbish.
It's not fun. It's not fair. And it totally degrades my opinion of Totem's business practices.
My stats on this one:
150 cards (1500 credits) gambled, 1300 credits + 1 SEC won.
That SEC cost me 200 credits, or roughly $16.65 USD, as I usually only buy credits when they are on sale with the +20% bonus.
That's more than 10x what a normal card costs.
Whatever the unpublished odds are on this one - they are NOT in your favour. I really, REALLY wish there was a way for PREMIUM, TRIPLE DIAMOND members to just get the cards without this gambling rubbish.
It's not fun. It's not fair. And it totally degrades my opinion of Totem's business practices.
nm76
Dołączył: Feb 2008 8 post(y/ów)
August 25, 2020 (edited)
@TheEmo
OK, so based on your claim that you were getting about the same "break even" odds as in previous events, I decided to buy another 100 cards "for science" and then post my exact results from both sets of 100 cards.
First 100 cards, which I bought back on Friday (prior to my earlier post) yielded the following:
66 -- no win
30 -- 10 credits
4 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 500 credits)
Second set of 100 cards, purchased today:
27 -- no win
67 -- 10 credits
6 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 30 credits)
Combined, over the 200 cards, that makes:
93 -- no win
97 -- 10 credits
10 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
As you can see, there's a HUGE difference in the "no-win" versus "10-credit" outcomes between the two sets.
While I totally agree that 100 (or even 200) cards is not a statistically significant number for determining the odds of things like the 100-credit wins, it should be a realtively decent number of trials for determining the "10-credit" and "no win" chances. And while it's true that the differences between my results on Friday and my results today could be due to just very odd luck, I personally think (especially given Totem's track record for screwed-up coding) that it's probably more likely that something was very broken with the game before, and they fixed it sometime between Friday and today. When did you buy your 120 cards?
My hunch (just a guess) was that for people like me with all the cards that couldn't get normal card wins, perhaps the game was previously giving them a "no win" in place of a normal-card win, and is now giving them a "10-credit" win in place of the normal-card win. Indeed, my results today look much, much closer to what I've seen in past scratch-off events.
[Edit: Just for reference... In both cases (both days), I purchased all the scratch cards in 20-card batches, though I wouldn't suspect that it makes any difference.]
I did not come to this conclusion. In the end I got this SEC after buying 120 scratch cards, and had 10 credits more than I started with. For me there does not seem to have been much of a change.
OK, so based on your claim that you were getting about the same "break even" odds as in previous events, I decided to buy another 100 cards "for science" and then post my exact results from both sets of 100 cards.
First 100 cards, which I bought back on Friday (prior to my earlier post) yielded the following:
66 -- no win
30 -- 10 credits
4 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 500 credits)
Second set of 100 cards, purchased today:
27 -- no win
67 -- 10 credits
6 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 30 credits)
Combined, over the 200 cards, that makes:
93 -- no win
97 -- 10 credits
10 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
As you can see, there's a HUGE difference in the "no-win" versus "10-credit" outcomes between the two sets.
Because of the relatively large prizes of 50 and 100 credits compared to the 10 credit cost of a scratch card, with corresponding low odds of winning them, you need to try far more than 100 cards before you can make a reasonable estimate of the long term odds for these games.
While I totally agree that 100 (or even 200) cards is not a statistically significant number for determining the odds of things like the 100-credit wins, it should be a realtively decent number of trials for determining the "10-credit" and "no win" chances. And while it's true that the differences between my results on Friday and my results today could be due to just very odd luck, I personally think (especially given Totem's track record for screwed-up coding) that it's probably more likely that something was very broken with the game before, and they fixed it sometime between Friday and today. When did you buy your 120 cards?
My hunch (just a guess) was that for people like me with all the cards that couldn't get normal card wins, perhaps the game was previously giving them a "no win" in place of a normal-card win, and is now giving them a "10-credit" win in place of the normal-card win. Indeed, my results today look much, much closer to what I've seen in past scratch-off events.
[Edit: Just for reference... In both cases (both days), I purchased all the scratch cards in 20-card batches, though I wouldn't suspect that it makes any difference.]
wtprivate
Dołączył: Jul 2017 204 post(y/ów)
August 26, 2020
My firm suspicion is that the reason Totem don't publish the odds is because they are specific to the player, not the game.
Players with larger collections don't win as often as those with smaller ones. It's called "Skinner Boxing". Basically, the more you play the "game" (in this case, the "game" is building your collection), the harder it gets to win.
One example of this is the "card bonus". People like me who have large and complete collections can never win this, instead it comes up as a "no win". The odds of the other prizes coming up are also lower in most cases. I guess the logic is "a buyer will always be a buyer", so they figure people who have spent a lot won't care as much about losing credits (they're wrong, it's infuriating) ... but that's how the logic works.
That said, I have had occasions where I've had larger wins, and come out on top. Again, I believe this is part of the algorithm. Offering just enough "wins" to ensure the house always does.
In short, I don't believe the Totem games are truly random. My belief is they are at least in part algorithmic. This is why they don't publish odds.
Players with larger collections don't win as often as those with smaller ones. It's called "Skinner Boxing". Basically, the more you play the "game" (in this case, the "game" is building your collection), the harder it gets to win.
One example of this is the "card bonus". People like me who have large and complete collections can never win this, instead it comes up as a "no win". The odds of the other prizes coming up are also lower in most cases. I guess the logic is "a buyer will always be a buyer", so they figure people who have spent a lot won't care as much about losing credits (they're wrong, it's infuriating) ... but that's how the logic works.
That said, I have had occasions where I've had larger wins, and come out on top. Again, I believe this is part of the algorithm. Offering just enough "wins" to ensure the house always does.
In short, I don't believe the Totem games are truly random. My belief is they are at least in part algorithmic. This is why they don't publish odds.
willyweekly
Dołączył: Jul 2015 414 post(y/ów)
August 27, 2020
@TheEmo
I did not come to this conclusion. In the end I got this SEC after buying 120 scratch cards, and had 10 credits more than I started with. For me there does not seem to have been much of a change.
OK, so based on your claim that you were getting about the same "break even" odds as in previous events, I decided to buy another 100 cards "for science" and then post my exact results from both sets of 100 cards.
First 100 cards, which I bought back on Friday (prior to my earlier post) yielded the following:
66 -- no win
30 -- 10 credits
4 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 500 credits)
Second set of 100 cards, purchased today:
27 -- no win
67 -- 10 credits
6 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
(net loss of 30 credits)
Combined, over the 200 cards, that makes:
93 -- no win
97 -- 10 credits
10 -- 50 credits
0 -- 100 credits
0 -- SEC
As you can see, there's a HUGE difference in the "no-win" versus "10-credit" outcomes between the two sets.
Because of the relatively large prizes of 50 and 100 credits compared to the 10 credit cost of a scratch card, with corresponding low odds of winning them, you need to try far more than 100 cards before you can make a reasonable estimate of the long term odds for these games.
While I totally agree that 100 (or even 200) cards is not a statistically significant number for determining the odds of things like the 100-credit wins, it should be a realtively decent number of trials for determining the "10-credit" and "no win" chances. And while it's true that the differences between my results on Friday and my results today could be due to just very odd luck, I personally think (especially given Totem's track record for screwed-up coding) that it's probably more likely that something was very broken with the game before, and they fixed it sometime between Friday and today. When did you buy your 120 cards?
My hunch (just a guess) was that for people like me with all the cards that couldn't get normal card wins, perhaps the game was previously giving them a "no win" in place of a normal-card win, and is now giving them a "10-credit" win in place of the normal-card win. Indeed, my results today look much, much closer to what I've seen in past scratch-off events.
[Edit: Just for reference... In both cases (both days), I purchased all the scratch cards in 20-card batches, though I wouldn't suspect that it makes any difference.]
I am also curious if the odd are different because you can't win cards. If you can't win one of the prizes, then that must change the probability.
TheEmu
Dołączył: Jul 2012 3309 post(y/ów)
August 27, 2020 (edited)
@willyweekly
If we temporarily ignore all but the possibility of winning 10 credits - i.e. getting you money vack for a card then on average for each 100 cards bought you would expect to win 50 times - but with a standard deviation on that number being equal to its square root which is just over 7. This in turn means that you should not be at all surprised to get a result that is anything up to 2 standard deviations away (i.e. anything in the range 36 to 64, in fact about 50% of the results should be outside of this range) nor should you be too surprised by results that are 3 deviations away from the average (though at that level you can legitimately begin to wonder).
Your results are quite consistant with the true probabilty of winning being 50%. Including the other prizes would significantly complicate the calculations but not in a way to invalidate the hypothesis that the odds are 50-50. If the larger prizes are considered then the odds of winning the most common prize of just 10 credits will go down so that in the short term you will tend to lose but the rare wins of 50 and even rarer wins of 100 would compensate this.
Now I do not say that the game is definately fair in this technical sense with regard to the long term outcome, but as yet I have seen no proof that it is not. Indeed I would expect that there would be a small bias in favour of the house - like that given by any zeroes on a roulette wheel.
Note, a casino can make a profit on an absolutely fair game like this (e.g. a roulette wheel with no zeroes) because given a run of small losses a customer may stop playing whereas the casino, having deeper pockets, can typically afford to wait longer and also gets the benefit of the averaging effect of having many customers which damps out the random variations,
In at least some of the previous scratch games if your collection rules out winning free cards then this possibility has been invisibly replaced by getting your money back, which for this game would be a 10 credit prize. I do not know if that is the case for the current game.
If we temporarily ignore all but the possibility of winning 10 credits - i.e. getting you money vack for a card then on average for each 100 cards bought you would expect to win 50 times - but with a standard deviation on that number being equal to its square root which is just over 7. This in turn means that you should not be at all surprised to get a result that is anything up to 2 standard deviations away (i.e. anything in the range 36 to 64, in fact about 50% of the results should be outside of this range) nor should you be too surprised by results that are 3 deviations away from the average (though at that level you can legitimately begin to wonder).
Your results are quite consistant with the true probabilty of winning being 50%. Including the other prizes would significantly complicate the calculations but not in a way to invalidate the hypothesis that the odds are 50-50. If the larger prizes are considered then the odds of winning the most common prize of just 10 credits will go down so that in the short term you will tend to lose but the rare wins of 50 and even rarer wins of 100 would compensate this.
Now I do not say that the game is definately fair in this technical sense with regard to the long term outcome, but as yet I have seen no proof that it is not. Indeed I would expect that there would be a small bias in favour of the house - like that given by any zeroes on a roulette wheel.
Note, a casino can make a profit on an absolutely fair game like this (e.g. a roulette wheel with no zeroes) because given a run of small losses a customer may stop playing whereas the casino, having deeper pockets, can typically afford to wait longer and also gets the benefit of the averaging effect of having many customers which damps out the random variations,
I am also curious if the odd are different because you can't win cards. If you can't win one of the prizes, then that must change the probability.
In at least some of the previous scratch games if your collection rules out winning free cards then this possibility has been invisibly replaced by getting your money back, which for this game would be a 10 credit prize. I do not know if that is the case for the current game.
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